Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting

Offers an econometric analysis of business cycles. This book addresses five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. It asks whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower.
A collection of essays which analyze the econometrics of business cycles, this text addresses five principal questions about their measurement, modelling and forecasting. It asks whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. It considers whether economic expansions and contraction tend to die of "old age". Contrary to popular wisdom, the book finds little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although it does find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the definining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations, examining how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity.
The authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including non-parametric analysis, frac