The Signal and the Noise

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. In The Signal and the Noise , the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every single state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.

Review:

Outstanding... I was hooked -- Tim Harford Financial Times One of the more momentous books of the decade The New York Times Book Review A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically Guardian The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding Sunday Telegraph Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe? Jonathan Freedland Fascinating... our age's Brunel -- Bryan Appleyard Sunday Times A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability -- Daily Telegraph The Galileo of number crunchers Independent A 34-year old Delphic Oracle Daily Beast